Last week, after John Axford blew his first save of the season, thus ending his save streak of 49 straight games, the fourth best streak in the history of Major League Baseball. A few days earlier, Axford threw out two tweets that should have eased the minds of Brewer Nation:
Me (John Axford) - *May 9, 2011. 0-1, 5.40ERA, 6 saves, 2 BS. 6BB, 14K.
*May 9, 2012. 0-2, 5.59ERA, 6 saves, 0 BS, 7BB, 17K.
Milwaukee Brewers - *May 9, 2011 -- 15-20. 5th in the NL Central. *May 9, 2012 -- 13-18. 5th in NL Central.
It may not seem like it, but the Milwaukee Brewers are in the exact same position they were in a season ago. I don't know about you, but I was pretty pleased with the way last season went save for the NLCS exit to the hated St. Louis Cardinals. In prior years, it was the Brewers getting off to a hot start and then faltering at the end of the season, making missing out on the playoffs even more of a heartbreak. By starting slow, the Brewers take all the pressure and attention (except for the whole Ryan Braun thing) off themselves and can play better baseball. As it stands right now, the Crew is 16-20 and only five games back of the division leading Cardinals. That certainly doesn't seem so bad being just over a month into the season with over four months to play. But what do the Brewers need to do to string together some wins and get out of this funk?
As of late, Milwaukee's starting pitching has been superb. Even with the loss of Chris Narveson to a torn rotator cuff (which in my mind isn't much of a loss at all), the Brewers starting 5 has been pretty solid. Zack Greinke, Yovani Gallardo, Shaun Marcum, Randy Wolf, and Marco Estrada have combined to go nearly six innings a start while having a combined ERA of 4.12. The ERA doesn't seem like the greatest, but these guys are basically averaging a quality start, which is all you can ask out of your starting pitchers. Maybe we should expect more out of Greinke, the undoubted ace of the staff, but throw out a couple of stinker starts by Gallardo against the Cardinals and the starting five has done its job. Marcum has been nearly as good as Greinke, but hasn't been getting the same help from the bullpen or the offense (Greinke: 4-1, 2.88 ERA; Marcum: 2-1, 3.07 ERA). Speaking of the bullpen and offense...
This is where numbers have been down...way down. I would prefer to not even begin to calculate what the ERA of this bunch is and to say that Kameron Loe and Manny Parra have been the two most reliable pitchers out of the 'pen this year should say it all. Yes, Axford only has one blown save, but his ERA is 5.56 and he has failed to hold some tie ball games for the Brewers. Let's just hope this is just another slow start and Ax will get things back on track. The re-signing of K-Rod was supposed to make games that Milwaukee was leading seven innings long, but his ERA is sniffing five and he has been hit hard on numerous occasions. Still, both are guys I know who will turn it around and the Crew should be fortunate to still be in striking distance of first place despite their struggles. Loe and Parra have been pleasant surprises, but Jose Veras (acquired from Pittsburgh, ERA = 6.75) was handed the seventh inning job and has allowed a baserunner in something like 12 straight appearances. Ouch. And with Estrada out of the long relief role, there is no one who can fill that void who is currently on the roster. Wily Peralta seems ideal, but I can understand wanting to get him his starts at Triple A Nashville, because that team matters a lot more than Milwaukee. Vinny Chulk? No, thanks. Thankfully, the Brewers' starters going deep in games has made this issue small, but it's important to have a guy like Estrada in your 'pen to keep you in games.
Hopefully what I just said about the bullpen makes everyone feel a little better about things because I'm lost when it comes to the offense. I can say this much: I feel good about Ryan Braun and Jonathan Lucroy. That's about it. I like that my man Taylor Green is with the club and would like to see him get more time at first and second. I like that Travis Ishikawa has been a solid contributor. I like that Aramis Ramirez has a 12-game hitting streak and that he trails only Braun in RBIs. Here's the problem: it's not enough. There were a few more things I LIKED before the injury bug bit the Brewers...hard. Mat Gamel, Alex Gonzalez and Carlos Gomez were all doing positive things before Gamel and A-Gon's ACLs betrayed them and Gomez (.280 AVG) pulled his hammy. The return of Gomez will be a welcome sight and give the Brewers a solid left to right of Brauner, Go-Go and Corey Hart, who if not anything else has brought a big stick. Combine the positives I just listed with the security blankets of Nori Aoki and George Kottaras (.290 AVG), and there are reasons to be hopeful that this unit can collectively turn it around. After all, the Brewers are fifth in runs scored in the National League (14th in average), but also 15th in ERA (4.50).
So what do we make of all this? The Brewers have pretty much nowhere to go but up. K-Rod and Axford are going to become more reliable at the end of games, Loe has proven he can take on the seventh inning role, at least until Veras figures things out, and the starting five is collectively getting the job done and working fairly deep into games. As far as the offense, can Rickie Weeks really suck this bad for six months? Will Nyjer Morgan revisit his Tony Plush days? Can Luuuuuuc stay hot? Can guys get on base in front of Braun and A-Ram (see: Weeks and Nyjer questions)? I'd be lying if I said I have the answers to those questions, but my guess is that Rickie can get it together. Until then, why not play guys who are proving to get the job done (see: Green, Aoki, Gomez when he gets back)? Or at least move Weeks down in the order and have Lucroy continue hitting in the two-hole. I'm sorry for all the questions, but there have been a lot of them in this early baseball season. And that's what people need to remember: the season is early. Stay loyal to your Brewers, root them on, and be there for when they (hopefully) flip the switch.
By the way, I graduated, which is cool, and now I can blog more. I'll be interning at the Division III Baseball World Series, but after that it's anyone's guess. Hopefully the real world is kind to me and I find full-time employment soon after this internship, and if that should occur, you'll all be the first to know! (that is, if you follow me on Twitter...or if you're my mom)
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