Once again, don't hit the panic button

Last week, after John Axford blew his first save of the season, thus ending his save streak of 49 straight games, the fourth best streak in the history of Major League Baseball. A few days earlier, Axford threw out two tweets that should have eased the minds of Brewer Nation:

Me (John Axford) - *May 9, 2011. 0-1, 5.40ERA, 6 saves, 2 BS. 6BB, 14K.
*May 9, 2012. 0-2, 5.59ERA, 6 saves, 0 BS, 7BB, 17K.

Milwaukee Brewers - *May 9, 2011 -- 15-20. 5th in the NL Central. *May 9, 2012 -- 13-18. 5th in NL Central.

It may not seem like it, but the Milwaukee Brewers are in the exact same position they were in a season ago. I don't know about you, but I was pretty pleased with the way last season went save for the NLCS exit to the hated St. Louis Cardinals. In prior years, it was the Brewers getting off to a hot start and then faltering at the end of the season, making missing out on the playoffs even more of a heartbreak. By starting slow, the Brewers take all the pressure and attention (except for the whole Ryan Braun thing) off themselves and can play better baseball. As it stands right now, the Crew is 16-20 and only five games back of the division leading Cardinals. That certainly doesn't seem so bad being just over a month into the season with over four months to play. But what do the Brewers need to do to string together some wins and get out of this funk?

As of late, Milwaukee's starting pitching has been superb. Even with the loss of Chris Narveson to a torn rotator cuff (which in my mind isn't much of a loss at all), the Brewers starting 5 has been pretty solid. Zack Greinke, Yovani Gallardo, Shaun Marcum, Randy Wolf, and Marco Estrada have combined to go nearly six innings a start while having a combined ERA of 4.12. The ERA doesn't seem like the greatest, but these guys are basically averaging a quality start, which is all you can ask out of your starting pitchers. Maybe we should expect more out of Greinke, the undoubted ace of the staff, but throw out a couple of stinker starts by Gallardo against the Cardinals and the starting five has done its job. Marcum has been nearly as good as Greinke, but hasn't been getting the same help from the bullpen or the offense (Greinke: 4-1, 2.88 ERA; Marcum: 2-1, 3.07 ERA). Speaking of the bullpen and offense...

This is where numbers have been down...way down. I would prefer to not even begin to calculate what the ERA of this bunch is and to say that Kameron Loe and Manny Parra have been the two most reliable pitchers out of the 'pen this year should say it all. Yes, Axford only has one blown save, but his ERA is 5.56 and he has failed to hold some tie ball games for the Brewers. Let's just hope this is just another slow start and Ax will get things back on track. The re-signing of K-Rod was supposed to make games that Milwaukee was leading seven innings long, but his ERA is sniffing five and he has been hit hard on numerous occasions. Still, both are guys I know who will turn it around and the Crew should be fortunate to still be in striking distance of first place despite their struggles. Loe and Parra have been pleasant surprises, but Jose Veras (acquired from Pittsburgh, ERA = 6.75) was handed the seventh inning job and has allowed a baserunner in something like 12 straight appearances. Ouch. And with Estrada out of the long relief role, there is no one who can fill that void who is currently on the roster. Wily Peralta seems ideal, but I can understand wanting to get him his starts at Triple A Nashville, because that team matters a lot more than Milwaukee. Vinny Chulk? No, thanks. Thankfully, the Brewers' starters going deep in games has made this issue small, but it's important to have a guy like Estrada in your 'pen to keep you in games.

Hopefully what I just said about the bullpen makes everyone feel a little better about things because I'm lost when it comes to the offense. I can say this much: I feel good about Ryan Braun and Jonathan Lucroy. That's about it. I like that my man Taylor Green is with the club and would like to see him get more time at first and second. I like that Travis Ishikawa has been a solid contributor. I like that Aramis Ramirez has a 12-game hitting streak and that he trails only Braun in RBIs. Here's the problem: it's not enough. There were a few more things I LIKED before the injury bug bit the Brewers...hard. Mat Gamel, Alex Gonzalez and Carlos Gomez were all doing positive things before Gamel and A-Gon's ACLs betrayed them and Gomez (.280 AVG) pulled his hammy. The return of Gomez will be a welcome sight and give the Brewers a solid left to right of Brauner, Go-Go and Corey Hart, who if not anything else has brought a big stick. Combine the positives I just listed with the security blankets of Nori Aoki and George Kottaras (.290 AVG), and there are reasons to be hopeful that this unit can collectively turn it around. After all, the Brewers are fifth in runs scored in the National League (14th in average), but also 15th in ERA (4.50).

So what do we make of all this? The Brewers have pretty much nowhere to go but up. K-Rod and Axford are going to become more reliable at the end of games, Loe has proven he can take on the seventh inning role, at least until Veras figures things out, and the starting five is collectively getting the job done and working fairly deep into games. As far as the offense, can Rickie Weeks really suck this bad for six months? Will Nyjer Morgan revisit his Tony Plush days? Can Luuuuuuc stay hot? Can guys get on base in front of Braun and A-Ram (see: Weeks and Nyjer questions)? I'd be lying if I said I have the answers to those questions, but my guess is that Rickie can get it together. Until then, why not play guys who are proving to get the job done (see: Green, Aoki, Gomez when he gets back)? Or at least move Weeks down in the order and have Lucroy continue hitting in the two-hole. I'm sorry for all the questions, but there have been a lot of them in this early baseball season. And that's what people need to remember: the season is early. Stay loyal to your Brewers, root them on, and be there for when they (hopefully) flip the switch.

By the way, I graduated, which is cool, and now I can blog more. I'll be interning at the Division III Baseball World Series, but after that it's anyone's guess. Hopefully the real world is kind to me and I find full-time employment soon after this internship, and if that should occur, you'll all be the first to know! (that is, if you follow me on Twitter...or if you're my mom)

Not all that, but a bag of chips

Here's a fun fact for you. The Milwaukee Brewers come into play Wednesday 14th out of 16 National League teams in pitching when it comes to ERA (4.27). To be honest, I was extremely surprised to hear this at first because of how much the Brewers' pitching has seemed to improve this season compared to 2010 (4.58 ERA, also 14th in NL). But when I put things into perspective, it makes sense that the Brewers are where they are because we have seen an increase in pitching performances all over baseball. It's strange to see pitchers have this much success so early in the season because it normally takes some time for pitchers to shake the rust off their arms. This brings up a few questions. 1. Does this mean that pitchers will continue to dominate hitters this season? 2. Why are pitchers beginning to regain control in the pitcher/hitter duel?

1. I don't think so. Just like the way pitchers make adjustments based on who's at the plate, hitters are able to pick up on a pitcher's tendencies. However, I do believe that pitchers will still hold an advantage simply because of my answer to the second question.

2. This is a two part answer. First of all, the steroid era has essentially come and went. Players 'roiding up and smashing the ball out of the park helped bring a lot more fans to the park, but now the combination of a bad economy and better pitching/lack of the long ball has dropped attendance a bit. Basically, the people who have stopped coming to the park aren't true baseball fans, so I guess it's for the better. The other major factor? The cut fastball. This pitch is just dirty. Pitchers all over the league are starting to pick up on this notion. In fact, pitchers have reinvented themselves and salvaged their careers because of the cutter. It's very difficult to pick up the break because of how slight it is, but it's enough to throw off hitters, causing them to break their bats when it comes in on them, hit a dribbler off the end of their bat when it's going away or completely whiff on it altogether. It's different from a slider because the break on a slider begins much earlier, although it does have more of a bend. Even so, a hitter can adjust much easier to the slider than the cutter because of the spin on the baseball. Back in the day, I dabbled with the cut fastball but could never quite figure it out. Would mastering this pitch have helped extend my baseball career? The 69 mile-per-hour gopherball that I tossed at Miller Park last Saturday answers that question.

Enough with the boring lessons of baseball that no one cares about. Let's assess the Brewers as we near the end of the first-third of the season. 30-25? Sure, that's not bad, especially while being towards the bottom of the NL in pitching. Thankfully, the Brewers have made that up by scoring the 3rd most runs in the league and having...wait for it...THE THIRD BEST FIELDING PERCENTAGE IN THE LEAGUE!!!!! WHOA!!! I believe I said the Brewers would be one of the five worst fielding teams in the Majors. What I failed to mention was that I was drugged prior to making that prediction. Jokes on me I guess. They say that as long as you're doing well in two of the three major categories (Hitting, Pitching, Fielding), you're going to be in the running towards the end of the year. And as far as the Brewers' pitching is concerned, it's only going to get better. My main reason behind this statement is Zack Greinke. He hasn't been all that Brewer fans had hoped for before the season when many were resting playoff hopes on Greinke's back, but a 4-1 record can't be frowned upon too badly (the 5.29 ERA on the other hand...). Shaun Marcum HAS been all that AND a bag of chips. As I'm currently typing this and flipping back and forth between Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Finals and Game 3 of the Brewers/Reds series, Marcum has been cruising along. He doesn't blow you away with his stuff, but he is the definition of a pitcher; hitting his spots and throwing the pitch that the situation calls for. Tonight in particular, Marcum is using is change-up very effectively, especially against Jay Bruce (who has been on fire as of late). Greinke is beginning to come around and his last appearance proved it...he was without his best stuff, but the Zack Attack was still able to go six innings and only allow two runs because he stuck with his slider, the only pitch that was working for him. Oh and by the way, Greinke has 45 K's to go against just six walks. Greinke is well on his way.

There have been a few causes for concern for Milwaukee that could come back to bite them when the playoff race starts to heat up. For one, the Brewers don't have a lefty in the bullpen because of injuries (Zach Braddock, Manny Parra) and poor performance/injury (Mitch Stetter).

Quick update: Jay Bruce just hit a two-run homer. I'm an idiot.

The Brewers can't expect to be true contenders if they don't have that situational southpaw to call out from the pen to face a dangerous left-handed hitter. Unfortunately, Manny Parra continues to have setbacks and was recently placed on the 60-day DL because of elbow problems. Whether or not Parra will be back at all this season is difficult to say, but Braddock is very close to returning to the bigs and will provide a boost to a bullpen that has had it's ups and downs. Stetter hasn't been the same guy he was two years ago when he was on my good side, but I think that he will continue to be given opportunities to succeed with the big league club because of the lack of competent lefties in the Brewers' farm system/the injury to Parra. Another concern for the Crew is the trouble on the road. Currently, the Brewers are 9-18 on the road compared to a 21-7 record at home. Wow, talk about a split. I understand being more comfortable at home and having the support of your fans, but can it really make that much of a difference? Apparently so. Whether it's just all mental or the strength of opponent, the Brewers need to overcome this problem. The fact of the matter is that good teams are able to win a respectable amount on the road and then build up a solid record by winning two out of three at home time and again. The Cardinals, who currently lead the Brewers by 2.5 games, have had just as much success at home as on the road. This leads me to believe that the Cardinals will be able to hold their lead on Milwaukee because they will naturally begin to win more at home...UNLESS the Brewers begin to win more on the road.

Like I said before, the Brewers stand at 30-25 while sitting 2.5 games behind the front-running Cards and sitting 2.5 games ahead of the third place Reds, whom the Brewers have had their troubles against (2-6). They are 1-2 against St. Louis, so many battles against the Cardinals will ensue to help settle matters in the NL Central. To finish up my rundown of the Brewers, I'm going to do some rankings based on the bullpen, starting pitching, fielding and hitting. Enjoy.

BULLPEN:

1. John Axford (His stats may not be incredible, but he's doing his job)
2. Marco Estrada (Doing a solid job in the middle-relief role & gives you innings)
3. Kameron Loe (An absolute work-horse who helps keep a lead into the 9th for Ax)
4. LaTroy Hawkins (A minuscule ERA but a lack of high-pressure situations)
5. Sergio Mitre (Also a low ERA, but see Hawkins)
*Zach Braddock will be in this top five when he returns from injury

STARTING 5:

1. Shaun Marcum (A 6-2 record with a sub-3 ERA...he pitches for us?)
2. Yovani Gallardo (Recently bumped his ERA under 4 & has seven victories)
3. Randy Wolf (ERA below 3.50, but far too inconsistent for my liking)
4. Chris Narveson (For being the #5, have to be pleased with the Narv-dog's numbers)
5. Zack Greinke (Managing to get W's thanks to offense & starting to come around)

FIELDING:

1. Carlos Gomez (His combination of speed and...speed in center makes him #1)

Quick update: Kameron Loe now dropped to 4th in bullpen rankings after giving up a 2-run homer to Joey Votto and getting the loss, allowing the Brewers to lose ANOTHER series on the road. Wonderful. Brewers are now 30-26, 3 GB of Cardinals.

2. Corey Hart (Pretty solid arm and covers a lot of ground in the outfield)
3. Craig Counsell (By far the best fielding infielder on the team)
4. Ryan Braun (One of two full time players (Gomez) without an error)
5. Prince Fielder (Vastly improved picking the ball and surprisingly agile)

HITTING:

1. Ryan Braun (Duh)
2. Prince Fielder (Off to the best start to a season he's ever had, taking his walks)
3. Rickie Weeks (Have to wonder when this guy moves into a run-producing spot)
4. Jonathon Lucroy (Has put up very solid numbers in a short period of time)
5. Nyjer Morgan (That's right...I said it)

Number of road series' won by Brewers: 1 (Pirates)
Does that count? No.